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Predictious is a Bitcoin prediction market. You can trade predictions on Sport, Movies, TV, Politics, Bitcoin Economy, etc. and if you are right, win Bitcoins.

Predictious is similar to the now shutdown website InTrade, it's a futures exchange running on Bitcoins.

Prediction Market

When someone places an order on Predictious for X to happen, and somebody else places an order for the opposite outcome Y to happen (X and Y are mutually exclusive), a share of each is created. For example, if a user places an order for X at 4 and another user places an order for Y at 6, a share of X and a share of Y will be created. In the end, either X or Y will resolve at m฿10.

The other Bitcoin betting websites (and most sport betting websites) use a pari-mutuel betting system, all bets are placed in a pool, and when the outcome of the event is determined, the winners share the funds in that pool. There are several disadvantages for the player with pari-mutuel betting: Players have to wait until the event is finished to unlock their profits. Also, players don't know what odds they will get when they place their bet, as the odds may change over time as more people vote more for one outcome or the other.

On the other end, with Predictious, the user places an order for a prediction, at a number of shares and price of his choice. Each share for a prediction will earn exactly 10 millibitcoins (1 millibitcoin = 0.001 bitcoin) if the prediction is correct, so odds are guaranteed. The predictious system then matches complementary orders together.


Predictious offers to trade predictions in the following categories:


  • Earn Money: You can earn Bitcoin if your predictions are right. Read more on how to make money with Predictious.
  • Secure: Sign in using Google Accounts, enable two-factor authentication if you need additional protection for your account.
  • Unlock profits (or cut losses) early and speculate: If the price of your shares goes up before the event date, sell them and make profits immediately regardless of the outcome of the event.
  • Guaranteed odds: Place the price you are ready to pay for a share, if you are correct, you will win m฿10.
  • Hedge your Bitcoin position: Predictious offers derivatives (option spreads) allowing you to buy either bullish or bearish spreads.
  • No Transfer Fee: Deposit and withdraw your Bitcoins from Predictious as often as you want, at any time, it is completely free. More about Predictious Fees .
  • Short selling: You can also short sell shares when you think an event will not occur. Short shares are paid 10 m฿ if the event does NOT occur.
  • You are in control: Unlike a stock market, you don't have to be an expert in finance to understand what you are buying. Contracts represent day to day real-life events.
  • Transparent: You can see all your positions, open orders, transaction history, resolved contracts at any time.
  • Try it with just a few cents: All prices are in m฿ (1 Millibitcoin = 0.001 Bitcoin). You can buy your first share with less than a Bitcent.
  • Predictious API: Members can use the Predictious API to create custom applications.
  • Change the odd format: Possibility to change the odd format (Decimal, Share Price, MoneyLine, Fractional) to make the interface as intuitive as possible for each user.
  • Set an expiration date: if you want to cancel unmatched orders before the event date, you can set an expiration date and time. Read more here.
  • Optimized for Mobile devices: Trade with your phone or tablet.

Example Markets

Bitcoin: Sport:
Politics: Science & Tech


  • Predictious was launched on July 11, 2013.
  • Predictious launched Bitcoin Option Spread derivatives in December 2013.

External Links


Flavien Charlon


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